Application of ARIMA model for Forecasting Daily Gold Prices in India
Keywords:Gold Prices, Forecasting, ARIMA, Box Jenkins, Gold
Gold is the most desired high value commodity in almost all the nations. Gold not only provides safety against financial odds but also prove to be a vital parameter for wealth of individuals, governments and central banks worldwide. Gold prices are very volatile through all the commodity exchanges among different nations. With proper forecasting risk of high volatility could be avoided and returns could be more stable. Forecasting, if done with robust modelling and accurate data can lead to precise investment planning yielding well estimated returns. Present paper exhibits forecasting of gold prices in India using ARIMA model developed by Box and Jenkins 1976. Data taken from World Gold Council website for almost 43 years on daily basis is put to use to identify and fit ARIMA model. Identified model is found to be fit and forecasting is done with very high accuracy in the present study.
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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0).